"And of course the Russian army isn’t going to use a pontoon bridge to cross between two points in Belarus as part of an invasion of Ukraine."
Welp. I did think the pontoon bridge was evidence for an invasion -it was an exceptionally weird place for Russians to operate in- if weak evidence.
"For a variety of reasons, I gave up hope of convincing people they were wrong in their arguments that Russia had compelling strategic reasons to launch a war of aggression in February. Instead, I am simply planning to point out after the fact that they were wrong."
Well, how did that work out? At this point I had 65% chance of invasion and had already written this piece explaining the strategic justification for it:
"And of course the Russian army isn’t going to use a pontoon bridge to cross between two points in Belarus as part of an invasion of Ukraine."
Welp. I did think the pontoon bridge was evidence for an invasion -it was an exceptionally weird place for Russians to operate in- if weak evidence.
"For a variety of reasons, I gave up hope of convincing people they were wrong in their arguments that Russia had compelling strategic reasons to launch a war of aggression in February. Instead, I am simply planning to point out after the fact that they were wrong."
Well, how did that work out? At this point I had 65% chance of invasion and had already written this piece explaining the strategic justification for it:
https://eharding.substack.com/p/the-case-for-russia-invading-ukraine?s=w
"On the other hand, nocturnal military operations are always difficult and there is no reason for doing one here."
Who's the troll here?
So just because somebody is a "plant" doesn't mean they are wrong.
In this case, some of the plants appear to have been American spies who knew Putin had privately declared his intentions.
And they didn't do a "nocturnal" invasion, they declared their invasion at 5AM local time and would have crossed the border right around sunrise.
Lol.